Yes this is earlier than I had mentioned, but I have some free time and plenty of motivation so I’ll get to work now
This post will contain some references to the gameplay that released recently, but all references will be clear and spoiler tagged. I ask that if anyone posts about things relating to either the trailer itself or my interpretation of it, to spoiler tag your posts
Before we begin, It’s important to remember exactly where we left off in Hitman 2:
Olivia was able to breach the servers of Haven Island to find the identities and locations of the partners, who were using Haven to disappear and hide after they realised the Constant was missing. It is important to mention that I do not believe that the partners are aware that 47 is after them, they are merely acting on a contingency plan that only the partners were aware of (proven in the NY intro scene)
Further reasoning for why I think that the partners won’t expect 47 is that they believe they left on good terms with the ICA. After they framed Janus as the real head of the militia, they told the partners that they had “neutralised the militia, once and for all” (WC briefing)
I imagine that Lucas Grey, the real head of the militia, commanded them to stand down so that the partners would truly believe the subterfuge, which they did. After the partners were informed, they were furious and blamed the constant for not seeing this coming. This made them paranoid and fearful and required the constant to inject a poison chip to ensure his loyalty, in case “treachery is contagious”. This proves that the partners are more afraid of someone within their organisation attacking them than they are of the ICA.
They also never knew that The Constant was kidnapped, only that he was missing. They believe that The Constant has betrayed them, and are assuming new identities because of the knowledge he has of them. This would explain why Alexa Carlisle is shouting on the phone “You little backstabbing prick” (Dartmoor trailer). I think that she is aware of the deaths of Ingram and Stuyvesant, and is blaming this on The Constant. (the word backstabbing really gives this away)
Anyway, to conclude, Hitman 3 will begin with the partners in hiding, believing that The Constant has betrayed them and are not expecting Lucas Grey and 47.
Carl Ingram and Marcus Stuyvesant are at the top of the world in Dubai. Carl Ingram is said to be (quoting and exploring Dubai intro video from gameplay)
“Paranoid, with security on highest alert” Stuyvesant looks to be a little bit more comfortable, as he is roaming around the art gallery and other areas of the Sceptre. I think that by using the surgery of Haven, he altered his appearance to be a little bit fatter, and maybe even some plastic surgery. He did seem to be very spooked after discovering Janus’ betrayal: “He could have buried us all, our families!” So it would fit his character
The Mission Objectives are already confirmed:
- Eliminate Carl Ingram
- Eliminate Marcus Stuyvesant
What is unknown is why Alexa Carlisle is not a target. In the game informer interview, the devs said that originally, all 3 partners would be here in Dubai. It is possible, but in no way able to be confirmed, that Alexa Carlisle is at the sceptre, but at a lower floor. This could be why Lucas Grey is with 47 in the mission. He would have to ultimately make a mistake and cause Alexa to flee. What is also possible is that after you eliminate 1 or 2 of your targets, she tries to contact them, but fails and flees to be safe. The Deep Dive article says that Alexa realises that something foul was happening and fled back to England, though it is unclear if this is before, during, or after the Dubai mission
However, I doubt this because (some dialogue from the gameplay)
Lucas only ever refers to the targets as Ingram and Stuyvesant. When 47 is in the air ventilation, Grey says "If Ingram and Stuyvesant are alerted to our presence, we may lose them for good. An odd thing to say if Carlise is still a target for their hypothetical joint mission
I also doubt this because the Deep DIve article states that Lucas Grey is “providing field support” and eliminating a target seems like a bit much.
The deep dive article also confirms that Alexa has faked her death. All the partners did this after Sgail but maybe she decided not to renew a new identity. If this is the case, this could be a reason as to why she does not appear in public in Dubai
It is also possible that Carlisle is only not in Dubai so that they have reason to do the creepy English manor, which the developers have already expressed interest in.
The story reason behind her absence could be:
- Ingram and Stuyvesant in one place makes them the more immediate target
- Her manor is a location The Constant never knew about, and thus feels safer by remaining there
- No reason given, she’s just away so Dartmoor can exist
Some Miscellaneous predictions and facts I have for Dubai as well:
- Sheik Al Ghazali will make his third and final appearance. Maybe even quoting something about death following him. 2 deaths in Paris and 2 more in Miami might spook him. The deep dive article indirectly confirms his prescense
- The mission title is “On Top of the World”. It was how Hakan Abrak first introduced Dubai at the PS5 showcase, how they introduce Dubai in the deep dive article, they said it word for word repeatedly in IOI Monthly and in (very mild gameplay trailer spoiler) It was shown on the screen when you load in, along with the name of the country (UAE).
- Both targets might try to escape if alerted, similar to Caruso and Yamazaki.
- Elevators will return in some capacity (Deep dive article shows 47 walking towards one, seems silly if they were not actually functioning)
- The floorplans are confirmed to be at the same terminal that controls elevator doors and other options (deep dive article)
- Exploding golf ball returns (deep dive article)
Thats about as much I can do with Dubai, moving on to Dartmoor
Ah, The Beldingford Manor of the trilogy. Its no surprise IO made a level like this since this very forum voted it the best map of the franchise in a poll back in 2014!
I have some very interesting theories for this mission. But first:
The mission may be called “Death in the Family” if the article intends to follow its segment naming, and second:
The article states that The Constant has been working behind the scenes to consolidate Providence and the ICA as one organisation
THIS IS IMPORTANT
It is hard to understand his motives as to why he is doing this, but its possible he is trying to neutralise the ICA as a threat towards him, as he knows that 47 and the gang will be hunting him down. Maybe he will try and offer them power and money to get them off his back, or at least get the agency to get 47 to stop hunting Providence. If he can turn the agency against 47, he will have made a genius decision.
I have a very interesting theory for the murder mystery as well, in an act of desperation, Alexa murdered someone in her house to create a very large police presence to prevent an assassination. Completely baseless, but possible.
Objectives Confirmed by the article:
- Eliminate Alexa Carlisle
- Retrieve the file on Arthur Edwards
There is substantially less information to go off of for Dartmoor, but there is far less information about our third location, Berlin
Berlin has very little information for reference, so it is from this point that things start to become much more speculative.
But my God does Berlin get me hyped for the story!
The article describes Berlin as “Where the trilogy begins to roll towards its inexorable conclusion”
Inexorable - impossible to stop or prevent
This is very hard to predict as definitively as I have the other missions, but the article makes some very specific statements that make room for interpretation. The author makes it clear that he won’t spoil why you’re in Berlin, and even makes a point about not spoiling who the targets are.
But here is my prediction anyhow:
By this point, all the partners are dead, and Lucas and Olivia will have betrayed 47 and Diana. This creates a cool 2v2 scenario.
We know that Lucas Grey has a safe house in Berlin, it was used multiple times by the gang. For example, it was where 47 recovered his memory, and where the team planned the Isle of Sgail mission. The fact that a safehouse exists here and we are going there in the next mission and is the part where the story twist happens is way too coincidental.
I think that it will be revealed that Grey, Olivia, and The Constant have been working together all along, and as the ICA is truly neutral, they will place contracts on Olivia and Lucas, but letting The Constant live because he is close to or has already completely merged the ICA and providence, and the benefits he brings outweigh the damage he has done, at least according to the ICA.
The Berlin safe house will make some sort of an appearance, maybe it has to be searched for evidence to find Lucas and Olivia.
It’s possible that Olivia will be a target here, and used to locate Grey, as the ICA has been capable of tracking her down before (Colorado). I would go as far as to say this is likely as the article made it a point to not mention the targets, an odd point to raise if the targets were simply the usual folk 47 is dealing with.
The word “inexorable” has me hooked. I think the contracts placed on Lucas and Olivia imply a sense of inevitability, and maybe she will tell 47 something like. “mark my words 47, the constant will pay”.
One final point about Berlin is that it is likely to be the same location as the forest from the announcement trailer. They look almost identical in concept, and the article confirms the presence of a “wooded area”
Diana and 47’s relationship has to go up in smoke here, or in Chongqing. Because you can bet your ass the constant is going to use his most powerful trap card, 47 killing Diana’s parents reveal. Face it, it’s inevitable. I predict that if Olivia dies here in Berlin, the constant will decide its time to separate 47 and Diana. Diana will distance herself. This is probably where the constants speech from the announcement trailer is from. “And now, you find yourself alone”. How he speaks to 47 is unclear
The guys in suits who are hunting 47 could be providence guys who protect Olivia, as she is likey a high ranking member of the organisation thanks to her hacking talent. Or they could be providence people who hunt 47 after discovering he is in Berlin after Diana gives him up to Providence as revenge.
Diana’s rage towards whoever killed her parents was basically the plot of the entire comic series, released alongside this game. It’s obvious that her rage will turn to 47 as it only makes sense from a narrative standpoint.
Anyway, time to make speculation in Chongqing
It’s important to note that there is very little narrative information for Chongqing. The “evidence” I have is very flimsy. Again, more speculation that assumes the last prediction was sort of accurate.
I believe that in Chongqing, 47 will kill Lucas Grey.
Firstly, the guards in the map resemble the militia that we see in Colorado, remember, Grey is the boss of that whole organisation.
Secondly, is a cryptic statement from matte_ioi, which is very much down to interpretation:
“I mean Chongqing will definitely make you all very moist but you really have no clue on what’s going on in this mission. You in for a surprise when you learn what it’s about.”
And finally, the flimsiest evidence so far, a small scene from the Colorado end scene shows Olivia in what appears to be a rainy day in London.
It could be possible that this was an early teaser for a Chongqing esque location, but was later decided to be Chongqing rather than London. It could be that Dartmoor was the decided UK location and the rainy, neon city idea was moved to Chongqing. At the very most, this shows that Olivia and Lucas have some kind of established base of operations that’s hidden within the map. This is only somewhat validated by another one of matte’s cryptic messages:
This map is nothing like Mumbai. I’ll say… it has more to it than meets the eye. Quite literally
Mission 5 and 6
From here, evidence-backed speculation is impossible. So instead of trying to guess exactly what happens, here are a few possibilities:
The Constant is hiding at the ICA facility in Greenland, having fully merged the ICA and Providence, he has the full protection of the ICA. It’s possible that Lucas was not killed earlier, and has them both as targets in a very dramatic finale. This location could house the locations of Freeform training and the Final Test to make the story fully cyclical. I doubt this because IO apparently makes the locations first, then the story around the locations. This is very heavily story focused and less like the team came up with the location idea first.
47 and Diana’s relationship is fractured beyond repair. For having betrayed 47, the ICA has her terminated by 47 (again). This would make it the most “intimate” contract that Hakan seemed to be referring to at the PS5 reveal. It would also explain why Diana is out at a party in the announcement trailer. Every location from that trailer has been confirmed except this one, I’d consider it reasonably likely
Lucas Grey survives Chongqing but is killed at the Romanian asylum. Mattias Engstrom refused to confirm or deny whether Romania was a location or not. If it is, Lucas Grey would have to be the target for narrative significance.
One or more of the targets are hiding in the mysterious dictatorship of Khandanyang. The only evidence is that they have been referencing this mission since Hitman 2016, and it seems very odd to come up with a whole ass fictional country and then not use it as a location. Only time will tell on this one
The Case Against Lucas, Olivia, and The Constant.
Finally, claims that I can support with evidence.
Firstly, I believe that the constant was always planning to overthrow the partners from the beginning.
The Case Against The Constant
His relative calmness when he discovers the NY vault that contained information on all providence members was robbed (ending of Marrakech) This suggests he knew that it was robbed by Lucas Grey (whom he is working with) and thus has little to fear
Why he turned to the ICA to hunt The Shadow Client when providence surely has the power, influence and ability to do so themselves. I think he was trying to begin the partnership with the ICA here to protect himself in the long term.
He says to the partners “Everyone hates power until you offer them some”. This could be foreshadowing the reveal that he offered Lucas and Olivia some power if they helped him with his cause.
Grey apparently has an informant on the Isle of Sgail. While this is confirmed by a guard on the map, it does not explain how he knew that the constant had a poison chip in his neck, and who held the kill switches, it is likely that The Constant supplied this information himself to Lucas.
During Janus’ funeral, The Constant says to Janus’ “I will finish what you started”. He couldn’t possibly be referring to the Ark Society or other providence business. It’s possible Janus often thought about overthrowing the partners himself, and gave The Constant information on how to do so
He offered up the identities of the partners after one punch from Lucas, this seems like far too little if he were truly dedicated to Providence.
He has to have escaped from the ship he was held on with help, there’s no way around this. This stinks of conspiracy
His monologue from the trailer “It was always going to end like this, all your hard work, all your sacrifice, only sped up the process.” This gives the impression that he was preparing for the leadership change for quite a while.
The Case Against Olivia
She has no real motive. She doesn’t have a vendetta against the partners and has not been affected by them that we know of. Why is she here?
She was aboard the same ship as the constant who received help to escape, the only other person was Diana.
She ordered Lucas to kill 47 in the Colorado ending. She didn’t even know that he knew 47 personally. She might just be following along because of the promise of wealth and fortune.
Berlin safehouse and a confirmed Berlin location immediately call her into question, especially when its supposed to be the games plot twist
It’s possible that she manually sent all of the partner’s assets to the Constant after the Haven cutscene, she would certainly be capable
The Case Against Lucas Grey
Has been tracking 47 for decades, but only ever tries to make contact many many years later. Why? Conspiracy.
Watched him through a sniper scope in Colorado, not a very brotherly thing to do
His reason for hunting providence is shaky at best. He basically says that the man he was running security for was a providence operative so he decided to take down the whole organisation? ain’t buying it pal
That shady scene at the end of Haven that was left very vague
All the partners are dead by the second mission, The Constant will only take up 1 mission, there’s some room to be filled mission-wise.
The game promises a conclusive ending, and the death of Lucas really is the perfect end for the trilogy.
This took me a long time to put together, I can’t wait to see what happens in just a few more weeks and to see how close I got